Here's my latest take on the campaign ahead of tomorrow's big day:
Don't be taken in by Labour's scaremongering - all the evidence points towards a Labour meltdown in Brighton Pavilion constituency.
The collapse of the Labour vote here has been as spectacular as anywhere in the country.
In the heady days of 1997, when Labour came to power, they had a majority of 13181 voters in Brighton Pavilion constituency (with a 55% share of the vote).
By 2001 that was down to 9643 (48%) and by 2005 had declined further to 5030 (35%), and in last year's European Elections (our most recent nationwide elections) that decline went into freefall when they polled just 15% across Brighton (and you would expect that Pavilion would be their strongest area)!
Meanwhile the Green vote at successive elections has soared, electing nine green councillors in Brighton Pavilion (more than any other party), and culminating in the Greens topping the poll citywide in last year's European Elections with 31% (more than double what Labour polled).
To compound this, the popular local Labour MP is retiring.
Labour's collapse here is reflected in the Bookies' odds. Labour's odds are lengthening by the day, with one bookie putting them at 8/1 and the shortest odds you can find for them now are 9/2 (meanwhile, Greens' odds have shortened and we are odds on favourites with ALL the bookies, and one bookie puts us at 1 /2 on!).
An interesting piece on the PM programme yesterday argued that, historically, bookies have a better record of predicting Election results than pollsters!
Election Predict 2010, a website that combines Comres polls with bookies odds gives the Greens a 55% chance of winning in Brighton Pavilion, whilst it gives Labour a less than 15% chance.
And if you are sceptical about the figures, you only need to take a short walk around the constituency and look at the posters to see who has the popular support here.
Labour ministers, Ed Balls and Peter Hain, seem to have given up on hoping that voters will have the enthusiasm to vote for them with their hearts and have, in desperation, started to ask them to vote with their heads instead.
In Brighton Pavilion, you don't have to do that because here you can vote with your head and your heart together.
On Thursday, you can vote with your head and your heart.
Trust your vote to the Greens and, together, we can change the country and Parliament for good.
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