It‘s almost two years since government forces in Syria fired on peaceful protesters at a pro-democracy rally, sparking a bloody conflict that has sent the country spiralling into a deep and complex civil war.

The Syrian people now face a humanitarian crisis of catastrophic proportions. The United Nations estimates that more than 60,000 have been killed, with around half of those thought to be civilians.

If current fighting continues, the death toll is predicted to increase by 5,000 every month. The UN Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has warned that as many as 100,000 people could die in the next year if a way cannot be found to resolve the conflict.

Meanwhile, for the huge numbers of displaced people and refugees flooding out of Syria, the situation is increasingly desperate.

Unicef puts the number of people having fled the country at over half a million, with extreme winter conditions seriously hampering access to even the most basic services at overburdened facilities like the Za'atari camp in Jordan, scene of recent riots.

And in a harrowing report published by the International Rescue Committee this week, Syrian refugees tell of widespread rape and sexual violence taking place on the ground.

As the situation worsens and the conflict threatens to further destabilise the whole region – with Sunni unrest erupting in Iraq, for example,  in response to the largely Sunni insurgency battling against President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Shia Iran – the lack of progress towards a resolution becomes ever more concerning.

In the short term, the UK's priority must be to work with our EU partners to peacefully support the local and international actors – particularly the United States and Russia – who are engaged in the negotiations to secure an immediate ceasefire.

With the spectre of failed Western intervention in the Middle East looming large over Syria and fears that external military assistance would exacerbate the violence in a conflict that few people really understand, a political solution remains the big hope.

With previous efforts by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan having failed, heavy expectations weigh on the talks between respected UN-Arab League mediator Brahimi, and Russia and the United States, which are looking at establishing a transitional government that negotiators say could include both officials serving under President Assad and members of the opposition.

At an international meeting at Wilton Park in West Sussex last week, members of the Syrian opposition pledged to work with officials serving in the current government as part of a broader post-Assad plan.

But the fate of Assad looks likely to be the most fundamental obstacle to any kind of settlement. Brahimi has said that Assad will have no place in any transitional government, rebel groups are insisting that his departure is a precondition for talks, and the US is already talking as though it is a given that he will fall.

Conversely, Syria’s natural ally Russia does not believe that negotiations should be predicated on Assad being ousted – and strongly opposes intervention by outside forces to impose any regime change, as does Iran.

Equally, the failure of foreign powers to understand the complex divisions and competing interests within the Syrian opposition movement could put a meaningful or sustainable solution dangerously far from reach.

The recent killing of a rebel commander, reportedly by members of a rival group, has highlighted the power struggles between many on the rebel side – while the presence of Jihadi groups such Jabhat al-Nusra, designated by the US as a terrorist organisation, poses a real problem for countries supporting for the opposition, and for post conflict planning.

Despite the great many complications, however, the international community must do all it can to achieve a political solution to this bloody conflict – with the US taking the strongest possible lead in diplomatic efforts and renewed efforts being made to work with Russia – as well as stepping up humanitarian assistance.

With Assad’s government retaining significant domestic support and military capability, any western-led military action could risk prolonging the violence, provoking Syria’s allies and upsetting the regional balance even further.

For the Syrian people, the stakes are incredibly high. We must hope that serious progress is made by Brahimi and others in the coming weeks, and that a last-resort scenario of intervention – even under the auspices of the United Nations – can be avoided.

ENDS